Friday Midday Updates: It’s a tricky holiday to project especially with Sunday being Christmas Eve, and business expected to nosedive then from Saturday then spike considerably on Christmas Day. Here’s a look at how everything is doing now, but it looks like if you’re a family film, you’re in the top six. New adult titles Downsizing and Father Figures are coming up short based on atrocious reviews. Currently, Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi looks to be 23% higher than Rogue One over its 4-day Christmas day spread a year ago.
In CinemaScore audience reports, Jumanji drew 51% males to 49% females with 54% over 25. Those under 25 at 46% gave the film a solid A. The original 1995 movie starring Robin Williams drew 58% men, 55% under 25. Like the reboot, it also received an overall A- CinemaScore.
The Greatest Showman counts all the Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron fans or 73% females. Fifty-three percent were 25 and up with 22% over 50. ‘A’ grades throughout all demos for this film with an overall A CinemaScore, except who gave it an A-. We’ll have more updates for you later tonight.
Industry estimates as of midday Friday:
Star Wars: The Last Jedi (DIS), 4,232 theaters / $28.3M Fri (73%)/3-day cume: $83.6M (-62%)/4-day: $118M/Total:$414.4M/ Wk 2
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (SONY), 3,765 theaters / $10M-$11M Fri /3-day cume: $26M-$28M/4-day: $34M-$40M/Total: $53M-$55M/ Wk 1
Pitch Perfect 3 (UNI), 3,447 theaters / $9.5M Fri /3-day cume: $23M-$25M/4-day: $31M-$35M/ Wk 1
Ferdinand (FOX), 3,630 theaters (+9) / $3.2M Fri (-11%)/3-day cume: $8.6M (-%)/4-day: $11.4M/Total: $30.8M/ Wk 2
The Greatest Showman (FOX), 3,006 theaters / $3.2M Fri /3-day cume: $8.3M/4-day: $10.7M-$11M/Total: $15M-$19M/Wk 1
Coco(DIS), 2,111 theaters (-1,044) / Fri: $2.9M / 3-day cume: $8.2M (-18%)/4-day: $10.5M/Total: $166.M / Wk 5
OUTSIDE TOP 6
Downsizing (PAR), 2,668 theaters / $2.3M Fri /3-day cume: $5.75M/4-day: $8.2M/ Wk 1
Father Figures (ALC/WB), 2,902 theaters / $1.7M Fri /3-day cume: $4M/4-day: $5.9M/ Wk 1
The Post (FOX), 9 theaters / $230K Fri/3-day cume: $715k /PTA: $79K /4-day: $1M/ Wk 1
Friday AM writethru of Thursday update: There were more K-12 schools out Thursday than Wednesday, (39% vs. 24%) and they’ll be even more out today (61%) before all schools and colleges are off through New Year’s Day. Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle is coming in much higher than we originally saw with an estimated $7.55M while Disney’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi continued to soak up most of the day’s business with $17.9M and a running cume of $296.6M, 24% behind Force Awakens at the same point in its play period and 34% ahead of last year’s Rogue One. Jumanji‘s running B.O. now stands including previews at $16.6M. Industry projections have it in the $50Ms through end of Monday.
20th Century Fox’s The Greatest Showman took in an estimated $2.1M yesterday, -12% from its opening day. Industry projections are still in the $20M through end of Christmas.
Universal just reported $2.1M in Thursday night previews for Gold Circle’s Pitch Perfect 3 at 2,600 locations that started at 7PM. Paramount’s Downsizing made $425K in previews last night at 1,900 sites. The Alexander Payne-directed comedy carries a 53% Rotten Tomatoes score. Pitch Perfect 3 has a lower RT at 27% Rotten, but it will likely have zero effect on ticket sales given the franchise’s femme fandom. Alcon/Warner Bros.’ Father Figures also held previews last night. Critics can’t stand the R-rated comedy at 14%.
The theory by box office analysts if there’s any clash between demos, it’s with young females on Pitch Perfect 3 and Jumanji.Many estimate that Pitch Perfect 3 can take in north of $20M by Christmas. Two years ago, the Elizabeth Banks’ directed sequel of Pitch Perfect 2 drew $4.6M from Thursday night previews and surprised at the box office earning $69.2M and overpowering Warner Bros.’ event pic Mad Max: Fury Road for No. 1.
RelishMix reports on the social media wattage that’s been power the word of mouth on Jumanji: The reboot has a social media universe of 568M which is double that of the average family pic. Online promo clips have been going viral at an insane rate of 66:1, beating the average of 40:1. Jumanji has some of the best social media stars in the world with Dwayne Johnson (167.3M), Kevin Hart (115M), and Nick Jonas (36.4M).
In addition, Sony has partnered again with Adexe & Nau, two singers/filmmakers who own 5.3M YouTube subscribers, on Jumanji. Back in the summer, the duo were also involved with Spider-Man Homecoming.
RelishMix says, “This duo is great at cutting music videos specific to Sony’s films – and subsequently, sharing their on-set, behind-the-scenes clips and good example of Sony’s social playbook, as Adexe & Nau obviously speak to an elusive tween audience.” While Jumanji has earned an A- overall CinemaScore, those under 25 gave the Jake Kasdan directed movie an A.
When it comes to Pitch Perfect 3, RelishMix notes that heading into the weekend that, “long time Pitch Fans are all over this for this third, and allegedly final, chapter in the series. Convo is very positive, with Fans at a fever pitch to see the Bellas one last time – even if they’re sarcastically convinced this last film won’t hold up to the previous two.” Led my Anna Kendrick’s 20.5M fans across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram, the Pitch Perfect 3 cast has over 70M followers. Further tubthumping comes from castmembers Ruby Rose (18.9M SMU) and Hailee Seinfeld (9.5M SMU). Some of the notable materials that went viral include a performance by the Bellas that was dropped on NBC’s The Voice on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving which accumulated 4.7M views (see below). In addition, since the beginning of the year, Uni has been dropping behind the scenes clips. Total social media universe across Facebook, Twitter and Instagram for the threequel numbers at 317M.
Thursday AM writethru after Wednesday PM update: Sony’s Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle grossed $7.1 million in its Wednesday opening, taking second place behind Disney/Lucafilm’s Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which is looking at $17M. Industry projections remain bullish that the Jake Kasdan film will get into the $50M rangeby the end of Christmas Day. All studios have their eyes on Christmas Day, because it’s from that point that movie attendance explodes.
Sneaks for Jumanji for Amazon Prime members grossed $2M on December 8, and that cash will be rolled into its total cume.
CinemaScore audiences gave the Jumanji reboot an A- last night. Fandango reports that advance ticket sales for Jumanji are far outstripping Dwayne Johnson and Kevin Hart’s previous movie Central Intelligence ($35.5M three-day opening) and that 68% of potential moviegoers are planning to see the adventure comedy with their family.
In addition, Last Jedi remains the top-ticket seller and carries a domestic gross to date of $278.8M, pacing 23% behind Force Awakens at the same point in time. A final domestic haul north of $700M is the current prediction. Industry estimates believe that over the six-day Wednesday-through-Christmas run that The Last Jedi will mint $110M, which will take its running domestic total to $371.8M.
Slowing down numbers this week is the fact there aren’t as many kids out of school as a year ago, read 17% K-12 were off on Wednesday versus 38% last year. That’s when Universal/Illumination’s Sing opened to $11M on Wednesday, leading to a five-day cume of $55.9M and six-day cume of $75.5M. Christmas Eve on Sunday doesn’t help any of the films’ three-day figures. Where the studios will benefit is in the New Year: On January 2, there will be 69% K-12 out with another 50% on January 3, 40% on January 4 and 40% on January 5. That’s more than double the amount of elementary and high schools out on a daily basis than at the beginning of 2017.
20th Century Fox/Chernin Entertainment’s The Greatest Showman filed third Wednesday with $2.4M, which will still get the period musical to the low-$20M range by the end of Christmas. Again, it’s a marathon, not a sprint for these movies as distribution executives assess their fortunes by MLK weekend. While critics have been cruel at 48% Rotten, the original musical starring Hugh Jackman, Michelle Williams, Zac Efron and Zendaya proved to be a real crowd-pleaser with the CinemaScore audience, who gave it a solid A. Ninety-eight percent of potential attendees in a Fandango poll are Jackman fans, and 81% are looking forward to seeing another original musical this season.
ComScore is projecting a final year between $11.1 billion-$11.2 billion. If we come in at the high end of that range, that will beat 2015’s $11.1 billion, good for the second best domestic year ever after 2016’s all-time record of $11.4 billion.